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… But the Nuggets are such a wagon at home. Then again, this is only a point off the preseason lookahead, with Denver looking at least as good as expected and the Warriors significantly worse. So the market is probably a little behind the Warriors. 500, and don't tell anyone in the Bay, but they're playing legitimately better without Green on the floor. But they've won five in a row to get over. The Warriors are going to be power-rated lower without Draymond Green and given their season-long struggles. It's definitely not profitable to back those teams, but fading them isn't especially so, either. Teams in that spot are 68% SU and 49% ATS since 2018. That's a notoriously bad spot, but the data doesn't really back that up. The Nuggets are off an East Coast road trip on a 3-games-in-4-nights stint in their first game at home.

Warriors vs Nuggets Picks, Bets: Over 233.5 (Play to 236) | Aaron Gordon over 13.5 points Plus, the Knicks are without Mitchell Robinson due to injury, which takes away one of their strengths on the offensive glass.ĮSPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS. They've lost the three games against the Bucks by 48 points combined, and the gap has widened with each meeting New York is not adapting. New York has had trouble with elite teams, and Milwaukee in particular. Milwaukee's been an absolute beast lately, and their defense is finally trending in the right direction. the Celtics and Bucks straight up and 1-4-1 ATS. The Knicks are 4-7 straight up, 3-8 ATS versus teams over. To make this more direct: You should bet Knicks moneyline if you think New York covers and lay the 3 with Milwaukee if you think the Bucks win. Meanwhile, only eight of the 28 teams teams to lose the game have covered. Of the 22 teams that have covered in that spot, 14 have won the game outright. Notably, dogs only win 33% of the time in that spot despite covering 54% of the time. (I was hoping for a Knicks win on Saturday teams who win the first game as a dog are just 41.9% ATS in that second game.) When two teams play in the same location within three days and the home team is a dog in both contests, the home dog is 54% ATS after a loss in the first contest.

The Bucks and Knicks play the second of two games at Madison Square Garden in three days after Milwaukee's blowout win on Saturday afternoon.

Bucks vs Knicks Picks, Bets: Over 240 (Play to 243) | Jalen Brunson over 26.5 points

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